Summary ; BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity. ; Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes. ; In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation. ; I expect a repeat of 2020-2022 when inflation declined in the short term but was eventually pushed to a new high as the Federal Reserve overstimulated.
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The only points that were higher were during the European debt crisis in 2011 and 2012.We have also seen spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds widen to 1.57 bps, which is not a...
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International investors have invested heavily in Chinese state-owned lenders for years. Banks that were the drivers of international and domestic projects in China, due to their higher interest rates paid as well as the perceived safety in investing in these policy banks. These same banks, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have seen two of the three major Chinese state-owned banks lending billions to Russia after sanctions were enacted by much of the Western world. Over $27 billion in yuan-...
The Alpha's Collateral Chapter Fifty - The Deal ; The Alpha's Collateral Chapter Forty-Nine - Alpha King ; The Alpha's Collateral Chapter Forty-Eight - Endgame
This is a sister post to Does Active Investing Work in Theory? exploring the two types of active management: alpha seeking and risk-adjusted return matching. The former is the sexy one; for almost all of us the latter is the realistic one. Let's make sure when we say "alpha" we all agree on what we are talking about. The term alpha generally means some version of outperformance. Imagine two runners in a 400m race where one finishes half a second ahead of the other. The faster finisher could be s...
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A bail fund promoted by Sen. Kamala Harris and some Joe Biden campaign staffers reportedly... The story was first reported by The Daily Caller and Alpha News MN. Harris shared a Twitter...